Clinuvel

polyphemus

polyphemus

7th Longest Active Member
@Alexmf good points and accurate.
What I like to do is go back to posts 12 months ago - you will see the same feelings and frustrations and future expectations. Groundhog day unfortunately.
What we need is a sharetease sentiment index that we can run a moving average over.
12 months ago I was buying with totlly unrealistic price target and that has not changed this year.
The macro risks (back then covid now covid + Central banking groups behaviour) are different but just as deadly and the execution risk by the company is the same but this year its over specific labelled trials CUV156,151,152,153 for XP, CUV104 for Vitiligo, CUV040 for VP, CUV801 for AIS and CUV901 if those IP rights come in for MS. (Bold is the same as last year.)
Shorts were over 5.6% and declining
Trading bots were on both sides pushing intra day volatility.
4C came in at $5.2M receipts underwhelmed the board prompting a 10% sell off over 2 weeks before the half yearly was released, analysts updated their forecasts, which preceded a 50% rally even with PW selling into it multiple times.
My guess is same thing will happen this year.
Last year we got unexpected Israeli approval - which unexpected market will it be this year - could be topicals in the US, China EPP access, could be PBS in Aust, haha it could be UK. Who knows?
And we start the day with an uptick before the bots start playing - we will rally and fall % throughout the day before closing somewhere around VWAP.
1642029012655.png
 
endymion96

endymion96

2nd Longest Active Member
@Alexmf
Alexmf said:
I really appreciate this forum and the fabulous research conducted by its members. It is clear that some very smart people are at work here. However, one aspect really bothers me and is quite amateurish, to be honest: The mood is absolutely dictated by the share price and not by the fundamentals. If (ceteris paribus) the share price was $50, or $60, or even $70 right now, I am certain that all the negativity from the posts would be gone and the mood would be cheerful (cf. run-up before the AGM). With the same underlying fundamentals. I think it's really important to realize that for long-term holders, current share price means nothing (in fact, a lower share price makes adding to your position now more lucrative).
Click to expand...
That is because after 15-20 years of fundamentals, we LT holders want to see SP movement. Time for talk has passed.
 
macgyver

macgyver

Well-known member
This again from @hottod over on Hot Copper. Interesting write up about M&A in particular the trend coming back to CNS disorders. I wonder if Clinuvel will ever be able to take on an indication such as Alzheimers by themselves. I don't think a collaboration is out of the question, that kind of flexibility I would like to see but more likely a takeover would suit everyone including PW.

www.biopharmadive.com

5 questions facing biotech M&A in 2022

Analysts expect that deal engines are ready to start firing again following the recent quiet period. Still, uncertainty remains about how biopharma acquisitions could play out in the coming months.
www.biopharmadive.com www.biopharmadive.com

Can brain drugs steal the spotlight?
For the past 20 years or so, many of the world's most powerful drug companies shied away from the brain and central nervous system, or CNS. Setbacks and failed programs were exceedingly common in neuroscience, which led drug developers to believe they didn't have a strong enough grasp of the biology and that money would be better spent on other areas of research.

But some now believe a sea change is underway. Last year saw GlaxoSmithKline mount a return to brain drugs through a deal with Alector, a biotech trying to fight neurodegeneration by harnessing the immune system, worth at least $700 million. Pfizer and Novartis also inked deals, with the former securing sales rights to a migraine drug developed by Biohaven Pharmaceuticals, and the latter teaming up with Belgium-based UCB on an experimental pill for Parkinson's disease.

Overall, the number of strategic collaborations focused on neurology was up about 50% in 2021 compared to the year before, according to the investment bank Jefferies. More deals may be on the way, too, given the renewed interest of some big pharmas and the steady crop of neuroscience biotechs that are entering the public markets.

"We predict CNS [and] neuro will remain a more investable space in 2022," wrote Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai in a Jan. 2 note to clients.

Tsai added that his team thinks Bristol Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, Roche, Takeda, AbbVie, Novartis and Biogen appear to be the "most keen" on pursuing neuroscience deals.
 
Last edited:
KRD

KRD

Well-known member
endymion96 said:
@Alexmf


That is because after 15-20 years of fundamentals, we LT holders want to see SP movement. Time for talk has passed.
Click to expand...
Well said and direct to the point. I might add that 20 years of up and down yo-yo prices, timeframes set and often missed, and exciting announcements of coming trials/indications followed by months if not years of radio silence have contributed to investor fatigue. Paper losses from last year’s peak to the current sp are enormous for many of us. I have no doubt that PW is disappointed as well, the hit to him from the drop in share value is in the tens of millions. No football club in his future until we see a dramatic uptick.
 
killipso35

killipso35

Well-known member
More trial delays without a reasonable explanation. Hmmm... let's see.

An overpaid CEO, already wealthy and who has been in the job a long time ... who is possibly thinking more about retirement plans than how to turn the ship around and actually launch these new products in a timely manner? A charismatic leader that is perhaps tired or who has poor management ability?

A company with supposed gold-class fiscal discipline that refuses to even issue any guidance?

Whatever the case, something seems very broken.

Clinuvel management must be living in a fantasy world. How is this okay? Chair and board allowing this to go on and on. They must be either brainwashed by PW, or clearly have no idea how to fix this rot.

Message to Clinuvel - how can we trust your integrity when we find out about trial delays from third-parties? That might be okay when you are a startup penny stock without a communications team or investor relations expert. However you are a public company and you cannot simply try to hide this kind of news under the rug. I know it can be brutal, because even the best-laid plans never go exactly to plan, and predicting timing is very difficult, but this is the game.

It is far less damaging to your precious integrity to issue a notice to investors of changes in timing, than to have them find out this way.

Sure, it takes courage to issue guidance and corrections to guidance, and this can scare away some folk, but it also attracts other folk. Your biggest most patient shareholders, like high net-worth individuals, will appreciate the honesty and just buy the dip, because as it is clear from these forums, they need to trust you.

What we need on this forum is a management trust index. A dial that we can regularly vote on. It should go up when they issue concrete, actionable, no bullshit information, and down when they are either silent, or issue puff pieces.
 
FarmaZutical

FarmaZutical

Well-known member
Of course it matters if the share price is low. Claiming that it doesn’t matter at all is pretty naive. Paper loss and opportunity cost are bad enough, but should the company wish to raise money for large and expensive trials, it would be way too expensive now. Of course it’s better to be able to maneuver as a CEO than being castrated by shorts. Also, a high share price is free PR and serves to attract new shareholders, better board members and new customers. It’s simply better to be a success than to look like a failure.
 
T

Traderman

Well-known member
killipso35 said:
More trial delays without a reasonable explanation. Hmmm... let's see.

An overpaid CEO, already wealthy and who has been in the job a long time ... who is possibly thinking more about retirement plans than how to turn the ship around and actually launch these new products in a timely manner? A charismatic leader that is perhaps tired or who has poor management ability?

A company with supposed gold-class fiscal discipline that refuses to even issue any guidance?

Whatever the case, something seems very broken.

Clinuvel management must be living in a fantasy world. How is this okay? Chair and board allowing this to go on and on. They must be either brainwashed by PW, or clearly have no idea how to fix this rot.

Message to Clinuvel - how can we trust your integrity when we find out about trial delays from third-parties? That might be okay when you are a startup penny stock without a communications team or investor relations expert. However you are a public company and you cannot simply try to hide this kind of news under the rug. I know it can be brutal, because even the best-laid plans never go exactly to plan, and predicting timing is very difficult, but this is the game.

It is far less damaging to your precious integrity to issue a notice to investors of changes in timing, than to have them find out this way.

Sure, it takes courage to issue guidance and corrections to guidance, and this can scare away some folk, but it also attracts other folk. Your biggest most patient shareholders, like high net-worth individuals, will appreciate the honesty and just buy the dip, because as it is clear from these forums, they need to trust you.

What we need on this forum is a management trust index. A dial that we can regularly vote on. It should go up when they issue concrete, actionable, no bullshit information, and down when they are either silent, or issue puff pieces.
Click to expand...
Send it directly to them!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top