Clinuvel

polyphemus

7th Longest Active Member
@macgyver I would say it is underwhelming with a $30 price tag. Hard for any one to value the company yet without time lines and pricing for XP and Vitiligo, or details on use trials for Prenumbra. Which leaves EPP revenue as the main value item.
Market Screener shows one new analyst since the 1st Oct, price tgt has gone up $1

Put in David's 2010 Nomura research which has Vitiligo. Just add 9 years + inflation and you get the idea (pre consolidation so multiply by 10 on earnings per share.)

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macgyver

Well-known member
@polyphemus Thanks for this. There’s a lot he didn’t know at the time as with most other investors, whereby a lot of research of late is revealing more about the qualities of afamelanotide. Interesting in the Nomura report that he mentions relapses in vitiligo are common, which lends weight to @seeva222 's assertion that vitiligo treatment with Scenesse will not be curative. Time will tell.
 

Clinhope

Well-known member
@TommyBlue i think i said as much in my comments. " even though there are more women than men on staff, i think this is a result of the world we live in."

But I'm not sure what this bit implies: " If the gender ratio of the staff is closer to gender ratio of people if adequate qualifications,". Are you saying the gender ratio in the general public is something like a 60/40 split women to men and if that is the ratio in the Clinuvel staff then it increases the likelihood (or is a result) of hiring the best person? If so I'm not aware of any country that has such a split. Although when it comes to University eduction ratios between genders I'm sure (and I know) women have outnumbered men in multiple high level courses for quite some time.

Nevertheless, the 50/50 board is a sad laugh regardless of its lesser importance.
 

Billy Boots

Well-known member
So now it's men against women with this sick company? Women have far more assets than we insipid men have. Give me a bloody break, what's this world coming to? Noted, down down down we continue to go. Yes I'm whinging again, but I speak the truth,not like the so called Premier of my State of Victoria in Australia. We in Melbourne are locked up for four months and only allowed to travel within a 5 kilometre distance of our homes. Inquiry now being reopened. Believe me I try to not look at the share price as it is never a pleasant activity,but I guess I will hang in there. Have a good weekend folks.
 

TommyBlue

New member
@TommyBlue i think i said as much in my comments. " even though there are more women than men on staff, i think this is a result of the world we live in."

But I'm not sure what this bit implies: " If the gender ratio of the staff is closer to gender ratio of people if adequate qualifications,". Are you saying the gender ratio in the general public is something like a 60/40 split women to men and if that is the ratio in the Clinuvel staff then it increases the likelihood (or is a result) of hiring the best person? If so I'm not aware of any country that has such a split. Although when it comes to University eduction ratios between genders I'm sure (and I know) women have outnumbered men in multiple high level courses for quite some time.

Nevertheless, the 50/50 board is a sad laugh regardless of its lesser importance.
Sorry, I should have expressed myself a bit more clearly (put it down to tiredness together with the misplaced "if" in the quote).
I meant that if you get closer to the gender ratio of people being qualified for the job (to make it easier: let's use university degrees as an indicator of qualification), your chances of hiring the best person available increase from a statistical perspective. If you take into account that the talent of women is often overlooked by other employers, then there will probably be more qualified women than men in the pool that you can recruit from. So if you make an effort to hire the best person for the job with as little bias as possible in your assessment, there's a good chance you might end up with a 60/40-split in favour of women without having hired anyone because of their gender.
I am of course aware that there are many factors at play when it comes to gender ratios in the workplace and that reality isn't as "clean" in its makeup that a theoretical model.
I just wanted to make the more general point, that gender ratios aren't just driven by political correctness but that there is real value for companies in making an effort to reduce biases in hiring and developing talent.
 

K-dt147

Member
I understand what you mean, but I consider the added value of the article to be quite insignificant. The gender ratio could have been mentioned very briefly. The fact that the subject is quickly misunderstood shows that we are moving away from the essential. It is important to get sales, new indications and finally an idea of the master plan. Which genders work in the company says almost nothing. I look forward to the strategy presentation to see how vitiligo, prenumbra and xp are progressing. Hopefully this will be discussed in detail then in these forum.
 

macgyver

Well-known member
If the share price chart over the past 6 years since EMA approval is anything to go by, the next 12 months should present a compelling story about Clinuvel sp wise. It took a full two years for the sp to essentially double from EMA approval, and then it’s has been roughly 18 months each time the sp has doubled. 2021 should (according to that orroneous correlation) see us back near or over $40.

I have a theory that the SP increase in the 6 months lead up to the FDA approval was wholly fabricated and manipulated to take advantage of the drop in sp post non-FDA approval. While the shorts increased dramatically in this period its not out of the question to assume the shorts also drove the price up on the back of flimsy volume. We had become so accustomed to the sp staying above $30 that we are outraged to be where we are now. However, even though it might appear that the current share price is where it truly should be, it is not. Even if the FDA approval didn’t go the way the shorts had hoped, the irony is they set the trap and sprung it themselves. They have been suppressing the price ever since.

So what to make of the outstanding shorts? Watching the activity over the past couple of weeks has seen them cover 150k+ quite easily in a short time frame. While I’d like to draw a correlation between shorts covered and rising sp thats very difficult to do. They seemed to have covered close to a million shares already between $22-24 range. Nope, I think they are mostly going to get away with their swindle, the question is how much of a rise will we see independent of short activity? 6.5million shorts could be covered at current rates within 18 months (maybe less?) but I’m not sure they have that long. We might get a boost care of the shorts, but if big investors enter then all bets are off.
 
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investek

Well-known member
They’ve talked about loco regional application of Afamelanotide some years ago but I don’t remember them confirming that the lotions are indeed also intended for repigmentation (Vitiligo).
I was drawn to a different section of the article.
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BIG BLUE NATION

Active member
@macgyver

Do you or others here ....... see a move to the NASDAQ ....... seems to me that would draw out some big investors, perhaps even with stopping some of the shorting ...... certainly think we would get some info out do the company with stricter SEC guidelines ....... then again maybe that’s why PW hasn’t moved in that direction .

thoughts ???????????????
 
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