Clinuvel

mrdax

Moderator
Staff member
Anybody aware if german Homm recommended to reduce the position in CUV on the 5th of Nov?

Just wondering as I am still receiving updates from him but only the headlines not the content. On the 5th Nov I received a mail "take profit" / "Gewinnmitnahme". Coincidence or was that a take profit for CUV shares?! Would explain the huge correction.
No it's regarding some other position not CUV
 

fozz

Well-known member
Shows how bored I am at work :LOL:

Ok, we have had a short attack which is 'doh' to anyone who follows CUV...

However, I hadn't really understood as to when it commenced. An obvious day is the 5th of November when the price dropped $5 and think that is when it started. But I propose it started way way way earlier than this. Looking back at the data, things were trending down from a short position till the 24th of September where the price had motored up to around the $43 mark off the back of the EoFY report which was received at the end of August.

Now in the following 3 weeks (24th Sept to 15th Oct), the price which had been only going up, started to have some interesting volatility with SP downward movements of -$1.20ish occurring on the 8th and 11th Oct, but CUV maintained the $40 SP mark pretty much. However the SP was now $3+ off the high since the EoFY report which didn't seem too much given the rise. During the same period the short position had also gone from 3.72% to 4.04%. I mentioned in a previous post that I thought 4% short position was now a 'risk ceiling' for shorty, so for this to have been breached was an indicator that my assumption was false and things were on the move again. (hindsight eh 😁).

For the next period of 2 weeks (18th Oct to 29th Oct) the SP dropped another approx $1.6 down to $38.61 and the short position went from 4.04% to 4.18%. Looking at this it was a relatively 'flat' period, but add in the previous 3 weeks and the SP was now $43.26 to $38.61 or down $4.65 ( -10ish% from high). So in 5 weeks (keep up in the back :ROFLMAO: ) SP is down 10%ish and short position has gone from 3.72% to 4.18%, up 11%).

In all honesty I didn't realize that a short attack was occurring at this time, knew shorty was on maneuvers but looking back it is obvious. The signs were there and with the knowledge of how easily shorty can manipulate the price, should have seen it coming.

The next week (1st Nov to 5th Nov), well this is where the attack went full throttle. From Monday the 1st to Thursday the 4th, the SP was having a good week, back up nearly $2 from the previous Friday close to $40.56 (I see this as a disguise to what was to come) and shorty went from 4.18% to 4.25%...again up another 1.7% (now up nearly 13% from 24th of Sept).

Then the bomb on Friday the 5th of November, down $5.06 in one day with short position increasing from 3.72% to 4.33% over the course of the 6 weeks.

So my question is, why commence this attack 6 weeks before Friday the 5th of November? How could the shorter be confident enough that a 'cover' of a downgrade to hold with same target SP of $36.80 from Jefferies would occur in the near future?

We all know that the short position of around 2 million of the current 2.37 million are out of the money till 27 SP mark is reached to be the motive for the attack, but how could you be sure of a pending down grade. Why was CUV even downgraded apart from some scuttlebutt about competition? Especially given the 4C clearly showed this:

View attachment 2359

Given the SP is WAY WAY below the HOLD target of $36.80 with Jefferies, why has the recommendation not been updated? Client's who have used this advice must be fuming as it is miles off the mark....nearly 20%.

The following graph shows the data and the expected SP trend (pretty obvious I know), which suggests the short attack will continue till the SP is back to where the 2 million shares are 'in the money from a book keeping perspective anyways.

Then what 😁.

View attachment 2362

If folks see any value in the graph above, I will post regularly. Any recommendation welcome.

Though this is a 'bummer' period for CUV holders, as shorty attacks, I personally have confidence that this is temporary as fundamentals will no doubt clash in the near future (1/2 year financials due in Feb 2022 and EoFY which we will get next August). Who knows when other news will come either

Repeat my punt is $0.88 EPS for FY 21/22.

GLTA IMO DYOR.
Such a good post and very weird Jefferies dont upgrade to Buy now price is 25% below target price of $36.8.... $$$$$$ profit are coming i think every single forum member knows it and also knows about the attack so I guess we mostly confident here bc cuv going to 40 or $50 in next 12 months just bc of EPS.....
 

johnnytech

Moderator
Staff member
Such a good post and very weird Jefferies dont upgrade to Buy now price is 25% below target price of $36.8
Thursday night downgrade (supposedly because above David's target), and then Friday largest short attack in history & 3rd largest trading volume event, and then no upgrade now because dropped way below target floor....

Yep, nothing suspicious about that. I'm sure the Jefferies's downgrade was just a coincidence.
 

schlitzo

Well-known member
Thursday night downgrade (supposedly because above David's target), and then Friday largest short attack in history & 3rd largest trading volume event, and then no upgrade now because dropped way below target floor....

Yep, nothing suspicious about that. I'm sure the Jefferies's downgrade was just a coincidence.
I wrote to Jefferies asking just that, have not received a reply as yet.
 

Billy Boots

Well-known member
Still reckon we have a great CEO the SP says it all. He's given the bloody shorters a free ride. Still reckon this bloke "isn't making money" on the side.........Personal opinion only but I have noted my holdings ain't makin' any money ARE YOURS? Remember....free speech. Merry Xmas anybody!!?
 

CUV Quote (Yesterday's close)

Time: 10:27AM AEDT
Price: 22.53
Volume: 24270
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