Thoughts about Starpharma

Texas T

Well-known member
I am wondering what the forum members' opinions are regarding the potential of the Starpharma share price in 5-10 years if all or most of the current DEP/cancer drug studies eventually get FDA and EMA approval. I started investing in Starpharma several years ago when the stock was at $1.20 U.S. just based on the Vivagel technology. Now that they have branched out with their DEP technology in combination with various cancer drugs, it would seem to me that the potential sales of all these combo cancer drugs would be astronomical. But I wonder what percentage of the profits would go to Starpharma and what would go to the companies that own the underlying cancer drugs? Are we looking at a sleeping giant, with ten-bagger potential from the current price, or would Starpharma's percentage of the profits be so small as limit the eventual market capitalization of the stock? Hoping that someone with more knowledge than me has done an in-depth analysis.
 

chemist

Member
@Texas T as far as I understand some of their DEP drugs are being pushed through trials in-house without any partnering so could be huge revenue winners. That said cancer drug therapy is a very crowded space so getting approval would only be the first step, then you still need to fight to get the sales and convince the medical community your drug is the one to prescribe. Would see a big sp spike on announcement then a retraction as the reality of money not flowing in straight away is understood. See for example CUV after US approval only now approaching the initial post approval price. Not sure what managements strategy is - partner everything where you can access the sales and distribution network of a Big Pharma company or try and take something all the way. I do like the diversity they've achieved, definitely gives them more shots on goal, although the red tape they're dealing with Viraleze has been frustrating. At a market capitalisation of around 0.5 billion they've definitely got plenty of upside and to me a 10x increase over 5-10 years is certainly possible. Only way I think it could happen quicker though is if one of their current partners starts to like what they see and takeover offers start being floated around. I really like them at prices from $1 to $1.50 as one to accumulate with so many possible sources of good news and a growing range of revenue streams to limit the cash burn and set a floor to their valuation. Cancer drug approval would be key to a big jump but feel a 2 or 3 times increase is very realistic over the next year or so. If anyone is looking at taking a punt on an Aussie/NZ company with a big value inflection point in the next quarter take a look at Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU). Their drug is partnered to Acadia in the US and due for a pivotal phase three readout before the end of the year. If they get a yes it should jump a bunch but of course a negative result and you'll see the opposite. They are playing hard in the orphan drug area with up to four more indications to be explored so I think they're a potential winner with several chances at getting a drug out there and repeating a CUV type surge
 

chemist

Member
PS - some of those drugs that SPL are applying their DEP technology are quite old and likely to be off patent so don't imagine there would be any third party to compensate eg irinotecan was first approved in around 1996 I believe
 

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